In 2023, China faced a significant drop in its birth rate, with births declining by over 500,000 to just over 9 million, marking a rapid acceleration in the country’s population decline. Despite the government’s efforts to encourage reproduction, women seemed to be increasingly hesitant to have children.
This decline in births had been ongoing for several years, with China experiencing less than half the number of births in 2023 compared to 2016, after the abolition of the one-child policy. The fertility rate, which measures the average number of children a woman has over her lifetime, had plummeted to close to 1.0, a level considered “ultralow” by demographers.
The demographic situation had become a pressing issue for Beijing, especially as China had experienced its first population decline since the 1960s in 2022. The population had decreased by 2.08 million in 2023, more than double the drop in the previous year, bringing China’s population down to 1.410 billion people.
Economic challenges compounded the situation, with the sudden lifting of Covid-19 restrictions in 2022 potentially leading to a rise in deaths in 2023. The number of deaths increased to 11.10 million in 2023 from 10.41 million in 2022. Additionally, economic uncertainty and high youth unemployment rates contributed to many young couples delaying starting families.
The decline in births was expected to continue, with projections indicating a drop of one million newborns per decade. This trend was exacerbated by the fact that there are fewer young people due to the one-child policy, leading to a shrinking pool of women of childbearing age. The fertility rate was less than half of the replacement rate, indicating that each generation would be less than half the size of the previous one.
In response to these challenges, the Chinese government launched a campaign for a “birth-friendly culture” and offered incentives to encourage couples to have more children. However, experts suggested that addressing economic and social issues, such as improving employment opportunities and reducing gender discrimination, might be more effective in addressing the declining birth rate.
As China grappled with its demographic shift, comparisons were drawn with Japan, another country facing an aging population. While Japan had managed to keep its workforce stable by retaining more elderly people in the workforce, China’s aging population was growing rapidly, posing unique challenges for its economic development.
Despite these challenges, China remained optimistic about its ability to adapt, with plans to boost industries focused on elderly care and explore innovative policies to address the demographic shift while ensuring sustainable economic growth.
(Source: New York Times | Reuters | WSJ)
